One of the most amusing things about politics is how binary people tend to be in their thinking. Whether it is partisans and true believers, independents, or political reporters, things are often either wonderful or horrible for any given party or candidate. Gradations in between, important distinctions, or changing circumstances […] Read more »
Bloomberg’s counterattacks may just resonate with Democrats
… I’ve been skeptical about Bloomberg’s chances and remain so. He has plenty of assets and liabilities as a Democratic candidate. But I’m at least a little less skeptical after seeing his counterpunching when attacked by Trump. Polls show that Democrats are “angry” with Trump, and a take-the-gloves-off approach has […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders leaps to first among Texas Democrats in latest UT/TT Poll
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has doubled his support among Democratic voters in Texas and now leads the race for that party’s presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Sanders had the support of 24% of the self-identified Democratic primary voters in the poll, up […] Read more »
Biden Needs Black Voters to Lift His Campaign. But He Has Competition.
… The ability to mobilize black support in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Feb. 29, and across the South has long been the foundation of Mr. Biden’s candidacy — a presumed advantage that would highlight his capacity to forge a diverse coalition to take down President Trump. Yet […] Read more »
Trump Is Waiting and He Is Ready
There are three crucial developments working in Donald Trump’s favor in the 2020 presidential campaign. These include what a group of Harvard economists — Alberto Alesina, Stefanie Stantcheva and Armando Miano — describe in a recent paper as “The Polarization of Reality.” They write: Evidence is growing that Americans are […] Read more »
A Contested Convention Becomes More Likely
This week, we deep-dive into the results from the New Hampshire primary. Then, as the campaigns go west, we get Harry’s Forecast for Nevada. Plus, we discuss Mike Bloomberg’s rise in recent polls, along with the renewed scrutiny from his time as New York City mayor. The Forecast Fest Read more »