Many observers of the 2020 Democratic primary expect that the race will be much different as it moves to states with more diverse electorates. In particular, the expectation is that former Vice President Joe Biden will do better and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg will do worse. […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Is on the Rise. But How High Can His Numbers Go?
Senator Bernie Sanders has a solid base of support. That much is clear. And he has done a remarkably good job of boxing out Senator Elizabeth Warren for the support of the party’s left wing. He is now the choice of nearly half of Democratic voters who identify as “very […] Read more »
Pollsters got it wrong in the 2016 election. Now they want another shot.
… A cocktail of problems led to the polling misses of 2016. … But while pollsters received the majority of the blame, perhaps more condemnation ought to have fallen on the forecasters, who turn pollsters’ data into predictions. CONT. Rob Arthur, MIT Technology Review Read more »
Should We Be Freaking Out Yet About a Contested Convention?
As we move to Nevada, the third contest on the Democrats’ primary calendar, the picture of who the Democrats will nominate for president is as clear as mud. Here’s what we do know: Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg lead the delegate count (22 for Buttigieg to 21 for Sanders), the […] Read more »
A skeptical party warms to a party-switching billionaire New Yorker, take two
… When Quinnipiac University asked voters how they felt about Bloomberg in December, he was barely above water with members of the party whose nomination he sought. By which I mean his net favorability was only slightly positive; only a bit more Democrats viewed him favorably than unfavorably. Just past […] Read more »
Movin’ On
The Poll Hub team is movin’ on from New Hampshire but not before we assess the performance of the polls and the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary. What does it all mean as the candidates head West and South? We have our take. And, twenty-seven Marist College students joined […] Read more »