… Presidents are clearly punished for bad times and rewarded when the economy is strong. But do presidents really control the economy? Reasonable people may differ, but if they were honest, most who’ve tried pulling those levers from the White House would probably agree their influence is not as great […] Read more »
Young People of Color Shaped Key Super Tuesday Primaries
The 2020 Democratic presidential primaries have once again shown that young people influence elections. More than half of states have now voted in the 2020 Democratic primaries, and the field has narrowed to two candidates: former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Biden holds a substantial delegate lead […] Read more »
Why Trump wants to be seen as a ‘wartime’ President
… Donald Trump is trying to redefine coronavirus as a foreign threat (“the Chinese virus”) and himself as a wartime president defending the nation against what amounts to an invasion. … Trump “is now leaning into the notion of being a wartime president in part because somebody told him that […] Read more »
Could Biden’s Weakness With Young Voters Hurt Him In The General Election?
One of the defining features of the Democratic primary has been the age divide among voters — those 45 and over have overwhelmingly backed former Vice President Joe Biden, while those under 45 have generally supported Sen. Bernie Sanders. Now that Biden is the likely Democratic nominee, many political observers […] Read more »
How COVID-19 Is — And Isn’t — Changing Politics
According to the latest polling, the spread of COVID-19 has disrupted the daily lives of the vast majority of Americans. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how that broad effect has — and has not — changed partisan politics. They also ask how the pandemic […] Read more »
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know.
Many Democratic politicians and voters rallied strongly behind Joe Biden both before and after Super Tuesday, aiming to halt what appeared to be Bernie Sanders’s momentum. Many did so because they feared Sanders is too ideologically extreme to beat Donald Trump in November. Were they right? In short, probably so. […] Read more »