538’s Nate Silver on whether or not he thinks a bad economy hurts an incumbent president’s chances for reelection. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
The strong economy didn’t make Trump, but coronavirus collapse could break him
The last time an incumbent president lost reelection — George H.W. Bush, in 1992 — an “it’s the economy, stupid” campaign theme took him down. Unemployment then was hovering around 7.5%. In the calamitous spring of 2020, that sounds like a long-lost boomtime. The Labor Department last week reported unemployment […] Read more »
Senate battleground map shifts during pandemic response
The 2020 election is now less than six months away and in recent weeks the battle for the U.S. Senate seems to have tilted in the Democrats’ favor, according to polls and campaign analysts. The numbers suggest that, as Washington and the states weigh various responses to the coronavirus, Republican […] Read more »
Anxious About the Virus, Older Voters Grow More Wary of Trump
The coronavirus crisis and the administration’s halting response to it have cost President Trump support from one of his most crucial constituencies: America’s seniors. … For years, Republicans and Mr. Trump have relied on older Americans, the country’s largest voting bloc, to offset a huge advantage Democrats enjoy with younger […] Read more »
A record number hold a strong opinion of Trump
President Donald Trump’s campaign is about to unleash a “Death Star” against former Vice President Joe Biden, according to campaign manager Brad Parscale. In any other era with any other president, such imagery might seem out of place. It makes sense for Trump. Trump’s path to victory will probably rely […] Read more »
New polling data show Trump faltering in key swing states
While the country’s attention has been riveted on the COVID-19 pandemic, the general election contest is quietly taking shape, and the news for President Trump is mostly bad. After moving modestly upward in March, approval of his handling of the pandemic has fallen back to where it was when the […] Read more »