It’s morning again in America for the GOP, or at least in California today. The hard-fought special election for the state’s 25th District ended Wednesday when Democrat Christy Smith conceded the race to Republican Mike Garcia. Republicans have managed to flip a blue seat in California for the first time […] Read more »
Trump is benefiting from a covid-19 grace period. It won’t last forever.
President Trump bungled the coronavirus crisis. … It would be reasonable to expect Trump’s poll numbers to drop like a rock after this sort of mismanagement. But instead his approval rating is stable at around 44 percent — roughly where it was before the virus hit. That’s because Trump is […] Read more »
Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016
Key Points• Despite — or perhaps because of — the relatively high share of the vote third party candidates received in 2016, we expect the two major parties to have a better showing in 2020.• Voters generally feel better about their major party nominees this year than they did in […] Read more »
Here are the two groups of voters who may determine 2020
The 2016 presidential election was determined by voters who disliked both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Trump carried this portion of the electorate by a 17-point margin and, with their support, won the presidency. Not surprisingly, much attention has been paid this cycle to these “double haters” (i.e. those who […] Read more »
Trump Is Staking Out His Own Universe of ‘Alternative Facts’
… A series of recent research papers explore reasons for the appeal of the demagogue; the role of anger in Trump’s ascendance; and the political dark triad of psychopathy, Machiavellianism and narcissism. In “The Authentic Appeal of the Lying Demagogue: Proclaiming the Deeper Truth about Political Illegitimacy,” published in 2018 […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Biden tops Trump nationwide, but battlegrounds tilt Trump
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump now stands at five points, but Trump has an edge in the critical battleground states that could decide the electoral college, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back […] Read more »