… In national head-to-head polls conducted since April 1, Trump is barely breaking even with most older Americans — and in some age groups, he’s even trailing Biden by as much as 1.4 points (see 45- to 64-year-olds). (Pollsters don’t all use the same age brackets, so there is some […] Read more »
Coronavirus Is Becoming Even More Partisan
After spending much of the past three and a half years out of the spotlight, former President Barack Obama has become more vocally critical of President Trump’s administration. In turn, Trump has called for Obama and his administration to be investigated. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the […] Read more »
Trump’s risky new re-election strategy: Waging war with Obama
A war of words between President Donald Trump and his immediate predecessor is escalating after Barack Obama tore into U.S. leadership with veiled jabs at the administration. Trump’s decision to lean in to the battle has elevated Obama’s presence in the national conversation as his former vice president, Joe Biden, […] Read more »
The Relationship between In-Person Voting, Consolidated Polling Locations, and Absentee Voting on Covid-19
On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held a major election for state positions and presidential preferences for both major parties. … We use county level data on voting and COVID-19 tests to connect the election to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We find a statistically and economically significant association between […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders supporters reluctantly turn to Joe Biden, fueled by their dislike of President Trump
… While Trump is once again expected to attract some Americans who voted for Sanders in the primary and then helped him win crucial battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016, polls, analysts and interviews with nearly a dozen Sanders voters suggest he won’t be as successful […] Read more »
Can Republican recruits win in Democratic districts?
Republican Rep.-elect Mike Garcia made history in California this week. The former Navy fighter pilot and defense contractor became the first Republican to flip a Democratic-held congressional seat in the state since 1998. It was the first time in nearly a decade that Republicans won a Democratic seat in any […] Read more »