After the 2016 election, analysts spilled tubs of ink arguing that “Obama-Trump” voters helped swing the election. … Will party switching influence the 2020 presidential election? Our analysis suggests that, yes, a significant number of Trump’s 2016 voters are ready to vote for the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Joe Biden. […] Read more »
Trump has a real shot of winning
Former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in the presidential race. He leads in the swing states and is up somewhere between 5 and 8 points nationally, depending on what methodology you use. Yet it’s important to point out that even if the polls are an […] Read more »
Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts
… The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a “historic defeat” in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted. The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the […] Read more »
For Democrats, Unified Government Is No Longer Just a Fantasy
The political outlook has changed pretty dramatically in recent months, though not in the way you might think. Even though U.S. coronavirus deaths now surpass the capacity of FedEx Field, these changes aren’t directly related to the pandemic. Nor do they stem directly from our current economic downturn, the most […] Read more »
Why Democrats Can’t Rely On Voter Anger This November
… Increased anger isn’t a new phenomenon, but it is a rising one. Political scientist Steven Webster argues in his book, “American Rage,” that this current moment of partisan rancor is the culmination of a long pattern of increased anger in American politics. Webster finds that politicians in both parties […] Read more »
Why GOP can’t reopen the economy without Democratic buy-in
From President Donald Trump through Republican governors and state legislatures, the GOP is coalescing around a position of reopening the economy as quickly as possible despite concerns about seeding a wider spread of the coronavirus. … The daunting equation facing Trump and Republican governors is that no matter how many […] Read more »