In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses how public opinion on racism has changed over the past few weeks and how this will affect our politics. FiveThirtyEight The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
One Trump Year May Equal Two Years of Another President
… It is clear that Trump’s numbers have dropped some in recent weeks. The only dispute is by how much—and how far those numbers could drop if things don’t turn around. … I would make the case that what has contributed to the slippage that Trump has seen in recent […] Read more »
Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020
… Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the large majority of national polls in 2016. However, the magnitude of that lead varied considerably over time. This variability may reflect that fact that in an open seat contest like 2016, the choices of voters can be influenced more by the candidates’ […] Read more »
‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated. But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is hardening around a fundamentally […] Read more »
Iowa Poll: Trump leads Biden by 1 point in tight contest for president
Four years after Republican Donald Trump decisively won Iowa and the presidency, the state appears to be a toss-up as he seeks re-election this November, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows. Trump carried Iowa by 9 percentage points in his 2016 contest against Democrat Hillary Clinton. But today, […] Read more »
The Tea Party’s Last Stand
… Months ago, President Trump tweeted, “liberate” Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia and “save your great 2nd Amendment.” The national conservative funding network and Fox News jumped in to promote the protests, but the hundreds who joined the capitol protests fell far short of the Tea Party protests against President Barack […] Read more »