Trying to predict Biden’s veep? The conventional wisdom is usually wrong

The veepstakes is kicking into high gear for former Vice President Joe Biden. Who will he pick to be the Democratic vice presidential nominee? … The problem is that election polling won’t help you in determining who a presidential nominee will select as their running mate. There’s no voting patterns […] Read more »

The DACA ruling is a big loss for Trump — and perhaps his reelection

On Thursday, the Supreme Court dealt a serious blow to President Trump’s immigration agenda — and maybe to his reelection prospects. The court ruled, by a 5-to-4 margin, that the Trump administration failed to follow procedure and therefore can’t enact its plan to end Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), […] Read more »

Biden and Trump Are Fighting Each Other in a Changed World

America has swung wildly from electing, and re-electing, its first African-American president, to installing the most belligerently white chief executive in the nation’s history. Now, as a multiracial cohort of demonstrators has massed in more than 2000 cities and towns, as Covid-19 has shifted to red states and as the […] Read more »

Public opinion on policing has shifted. Here’s how to tell if the changes will stick.

In the three weeks since George Floyd’s death, public opinion on race and policing has zoomed left. Support for Black Lives Matter is skyrocketing. Almost 60 percent of Americans think police are more likely to use excessive force on an African American suspect than a white suspect — a sea […] Read more »