On Wednesday morning, The New York Times/Siena College will release its first national survey of the 2020 cycle, followed on Thursday by polls of the six states likeliest to decide the presidency: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Today, we release one element of the data: the methodology […] Read more »
The Black Lives Matter protests preview the politics of a diversifying America
The movement against police mistreatment of African Americans is broadening far beyond its core support in the Black community, with potentially landmark consequences both for the movement itself and the younger generations of Americans who have fueled this spring’s massive wave of protests. After years in which polls showed that […] Read more »
As Trump slumps, his campaign fixes on a target: Women
… The rebellion by college-educated women against the president in 2018, which gave Democrats control of the U.S. House via victories in the suburbs, has begun to register more deeply in recent months among non-college-educated and older women. … Just 4½ months from the election, an already historic partisan gender […] Read more »
Trump allies see a mounting threat: Biden’s rising evangelical support
… Biden, a lifelong Roman Catholic, has performed better in recent polling among white evangelicals — and other religious groups — than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016 and is widely perceived as more religious than the current White House occupant. … Many conservative evangelical leaders have argued […] Read more »
There’s no sign of ‘hidden’ Trump voters
A new national Ipsos/Reuters poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 48% to 35%. … Even though the national polls were accurate in 2016, one of the complaints I hear most often about the polls is that Trump’s supporters are either lying or won’t talk […] Read more »
Do you buy that Trump can ride a midwest path to victory in 2020?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what polling data says about the likelihood of the 2020 electoral map looking like it did in 2016. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »