… There’s been a lot of ink spilled about how Trump’s position has deteriorated significantly over the last few months. Indeed, his net approval rating (approve – disapprove) is down about 10 points since late March. He’s at his low point of the year, and there’s certainly a case to […] Read more »
Candidates who recover from Trump-like deficits are rarely incumbents
The polls are fairly unanimous: Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a significant advantage over President Donald Trump. On average, he’s up by 10 points nationally and in the pivotal battleground state of Wisconsin. There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back […] Read more »
How Americans Feel About the Country Right Now: Anxious. Hopeful.
… Nearly six months after the first case of coronavirus reached the United States, a majority of registered voters say they are anxious, exhausted and angry, according to a poll by The New York Times and Siena College. Yet even as they brace themselves for months of challenges from the […] Read more »
Working-class white women are turning on Trump
President Trump’s storied grip on the white working class is weakening among women, threatening both his reelection prospects and his party’s efforts to improve its standing with female voters. While working-class men remain among Trump’s most loyal backers, defections among their wives, sisters and daughters are a big part of […] Read more »
What a Surge in Absentee Ballots Means for November 2020
The uncertainty caused by COVID-19 has resulted in a record number of people requesting to vote-by-mail. While increased access to mail ballots will stem the spread of the disease, waiting for ballots to arrive will delay the final result. Kentucky and New York are among the states that hosted primaries […] Read more »
As Is Their Habit, Independents Seem to Be Breaking Against the Incumbent
… What many don’t appreciate is that voters who consider themselves independent have a tendency to vote for change in every presidential election. 2016 marked the fifth consecutive election in which independents have voted in favor of the party not holding the White House, by an average of 4 percentage […] Read more »