Picture this Thanksgiving: turkey, football (maybe), tenser-than-usual interactions with relatives. And perhaps a new tradition: finding out who actually won the presidential election. The coronavirus crisis means that states like Pennsylvania may be counting mail-in ballots for weeks, while President Trump tweets false allegations about fraud. And the last barriers […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Aug. 2
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist Read more »
Biden is eating into Trump’s Rust Belt base
… Trump won the 2016 election in large part because he was able to break through the big “blue” wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He did so on the backs of White voters, and in particular White voters without a college degree. This led to those infamous memes of […] Read more »
‘Nobody wants a replay of Bush v. Gore’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver discusses mail-in voting and the possibility that election results could be delayed. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Trump turns attention to suburbs despite demographic shifts
President Donald Trump has been paying a lot of attention to the suburbs over the last few weeks. He’s talked about protecting them from Democrats who, he says, want to “abolish” them and about protecting “suburban housewives” from the plans of presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. A campaign focusing on […] Read more »
Trump must win North Carolina. He’s losing there.
Absentee ballots start getting mailed to North Carolina voters in just 33 days, and a new CBS News/YouGov poll reveals ominous news for President Donald Trump in the Tar Heel state. Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow 48% to 44% advantage among likely voters. It’s the latest CNN […] Read more »