In mid-June, we moved both Iowa and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. At the time, we noted that while the polls were looking shaky for Pres. Trump, they were also catching him at what could be his lowest point of the cycle. “We’ll know soon enough if this […] Read more »
State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms
Key Points• There is a strong relationship between the 2020 presidential polls in the states and the 2016 results.• This relationship makes sense given that there is an incumbent on the ballot. In these kinds of elections, we see a very high degree of consistency in the results at the […] Read more »
Biden maintains lead heading into debate
The first presidential debate is Tuesday, marking the beginning of the final stretch of the 2020 campaign. It’s a fine time to take a step back and look at the big picture. The average of polls shows Joe Biden with a seven-point lead nationwide, giving him the largest lead of […] Read more »
Post-ABC poll: Biden leads Trump in battleground state of Pennsylvania
Former vice president Joe Biden leads President Trump in the contested battleground of Pennsylvania, buoyed by strong support in the Philadelphia suburbs and his competitiveness in the state’s western counties that were a Trump stronghold in 2016, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. … The Post-ABC poll suggests Biden […] Read more »
In Pennsylvania, advantage Biden with a big boost from women
Overwhelming support in Philadelphia and its suburbs lift former Vice President Joe Biden to a clear lead in crucial Pennsylvania, with backing from college-educated white people and women — notably white, moderate and suburban women — central to his advantage in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. CONT. Gary Langer, […] Read more »
The polling danger for Trump: Erosion among independents and those with college degrees
… The 2020 race has been unusually stable, with Biden holding a healthy polling lead for months. … In the 2016 presidential race, Post-ABC polling was more variable. From June to October, there was a 9-point spread in the margin between Trump and Hillary Clinton in our polls, from a […] Read more »