On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we assess the presidential contest in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. What’s different from 2016? Where is Biden’s weakness? We examine the latest NBC News/Marist Polls. Then, we go behind the “what” and look at the “why.” The Marist Poll […] Read more »
Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
President Trump announced early Friday morning that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. In this emergency edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, science writer Maggie Koerth joins the crew to discuss what’s possible going forward. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test Upends Campaign in Final Stretch
President Trump’s announcement early Friday that he had contracted the coronavirus upended the presidential race in an instant, inviting significant questions about his cavalier attitude toward the pandemic and the future of his campaign just 32 days before the election. Mr. Trump had already been trailing in the polls to […] Read more »
Equality Is on the Ballot: The Gender Gap Becomes a Chasm
In the past four years, Americans have experienced an endless series of large-scale events and shocks to our political system. … These cataclysmic events have shaped voter attitudes and preferences. In each of these cases, women appear to have reacted more quickly and more negatively to Trump than men have. […] Read more »
Americans Increasingly Believe Violence is Justified if the Other Side Wins
See correction Tweet thread, below. … Our research, which we’re reporting here for the first time, shows an upswing in the past few months in the number of Americans—both Democrats and Republicans—who said they think violence would be justified if their side loses the upcoming presidential election. … All of […] Read more »
At 46%, Trump’s Pre-Debate Job Approval Highest Since May
In Gallup polling conducted over the two weeks leading up to the first presidential debate, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is 46%, its highest point since May. Although still short of the majority approval that incumbent presidents typically need in order to be confident of reelection, more Americans say […] Read more »