In the final stretch of the campaign, we find three Southern battlegrounds that could still go either way. Our estimates show Joe Biden with just a two-point edge over President Trump in Florida, Biden up four points in North Carolina, and the contest even in Georgia. … Biden leads among […] Read more »
Trump, Biden favorability unchanged as 2020 race heads into final week
After two contentious debates and more than $1.5 billion in advertising, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden enter the closing week of a bitter campaign with their favorability ratings relatively unchanged since at least the summer, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday. CONT. Kendall Karson, […] Read more »
Beyond the Needle: Probability experts assess 2020 race
The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Donald Trump is the Needle. A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its […] Read more »
These Americans Tried to Listen to One Another. A Year Later, Here’s How They’re Voting.
ONE YEAR AGO, the Americans pictured here — Republicans, Democrats and independents — were among a group of voters feeling pretty good about the state of American democracy. They believed their differences weren’t so vast. They believed they could talk to one another. They thought compromise might even come of […] Read more »
How Trump is dragging down fellow Republicans
President Donald Trump’s struggles in the polls have been well documented. He entered the final debate down about 10 points to former Vice President Joe Biden and trailed in key swing states. Less discussed is that Trump has hurt Republicans’ chances of holding onto Senate control and pretty much eliminated […] Read more »
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin still hold the keys to 2020
Barely a week out from Election Day, the electoral map is a sprawling landscape, larger than predicted as the campaigns took shape a year ago. But if things are close in the end, the election is still likely to be decided by the trio of northern industrial states that broke […] Read more »