On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team shares the findings of a new NBC News/Marist Poll study which debunks the commonly held claim that weighting 2016 battleground state polls by education would have improved their accuracy. The Poll Hub team explains how an analysis of the 2019 gubernatorial […] Read more »
Here’s how NBC News is working to improve its state polling in 2020
In 2016, the polls were more right than wrong. The final national surveys had Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump ahead by an average of 3 points; Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points. But some state polling missed the mark badly, especially in Midwest and Rust […] Read more »
2019: The Year of Stability
The House of Representatives made history Wednesday, impeaching a president for just the third time. It made for an occasion that was both momentous and monotonous. Momentous in that Donald J. Trump appears likely to be the first impeached president who will nonetheless appear on general election ballots after that […] Read more »
Democrats are making big gains in the suburbs. Here’s why that may not be enough to beat Trump.
Democrats are rightfully ecstatic that they won two of the three 2019 elections for governor in deep red Southern states, overcoming relentless campaign visits by President Donald Trump. … The continued migration of highly college-educated suburbs away from Republicans in the Trump era is welcome news for Democrats. The Kentucky […] Read more »
Mired in trench warfare, Trump makes up poll numbers that show him winning handily
… On Monday morning, he offered some thoughts about polling on impeachment. Support for Impeachment is dropping like a rock, down into the 20’s in some Polls. Dems should now get down to work and finally approve USMCA, and much more! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 25, 2019 That […] Read more »
Democrats Were Both Lucky and Good in the Off-Year Elections
With Saturday’s gubernatorial runoff in Louisiana, the 2019 odd-year elections are now in the record books. Did Democrats capturing the governorship of Kentucky and reelecting a governor in Louisiana, though coming up short in Mississippi, mean anything? Are these results canaries in the proverbial coal mine or just random events? […] Read more »