How did we decide whom to call, and where did we get their numbers? Our poll started with the voter file, a data set of nearly every registered voter in the country. We call voters off this list, which makes our poll a “registration-based sample.” Not every pollster does this. […] Read more »
NBC/Marist poll: It’s a neck-and-neck Senate race in Tennessee
Democrat Phil Bredesen and Republican Marsha Blackburn are running neck and neck in Tennessee’s Senate contest, despite the state’s deep-red hue, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of Tennessee. Bredesen, the state’s former governor, gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, while Blackburn, who is a current member […] Read more »
Live From the Battleground Districts: Polls of the Key Races for House Control
Over the next two months, The New York Times will talk to more voters than ever before. It starts this afternoon, when we’ll publish the first New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive battlegrounds in the fight for Congress. But there’s a twist. None of these polls […] Read more »
A Back-of-the-Envelope Look at How the House Could Flip
Count the House races, and you’ll get a pretty good idea of whether the House will flip in the fall. No, you can’t be entirely certain how an individual toss-up contest is going to turn out in November. But you can arrive at a ballpark assessment of House changes right […] Read more »
Trump’s first midterm pits a booming economy against one of history’s most unpopular presidents
The midterm election now just over eight weeks away is shaping up as a seismic collision between two powerful and competing forces, a rip-roaring national economy and a deeply polarizing and unpopular president. At stake on Nov. 6 is not just control of Congress but the fate of President Trump […] Read more »
What Liberal Organizers Are Seeing on the Ground in 2018
The focus groups that provide the most revealing reactions to Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency may be the thousands of front-door conversations held every month around the country by canvassers for the liberal organizing group Working America. Those encounters suggest Democrats could reap big gains in 2018—but are still facing big […] Read more »