Ask any political analyst what midterm elections are about and they will respond, “midterms are almost always referenda on the incumbent president,” and the statistics bear them out. … But just how challenging a midterm election will be for a president’s party is largely determined by which party does the […] Read more »
New polls confirm the battle for control of the Senate is indeed a knife fight
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week that the race for control of the Senate is so close it is like a “knife fight in an alley.” New polls released on Wednesday back him up, but also show that Republicans are still favored to maintain their control. CONT. Harry […] Read more »
Tracking Trump: Comparing the latest NPR/Marist Poll with other national surveys
Some national polls are showing President Donald Trump’s job approval rating on the decline. Has the president’s rating really been bouncing up and down or is it all in the timing? The NPR/Marist Poll does show a drop in the president’s approval score among those in one very significant part […] Read more »
House Polls Show Very Close Races but Also Hints of Democratic Strength
With just under two months until the midterms, the races that seem likely to decide control of Congress remain strikingly close, according to a first wave of New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls. To take over the House, Democrats need to wrest at least 23 individual districts from Republican control. […] Read more »
Democrats maintain lead in race for control of U.S. House; outside top tier, potential Democratic presidential hopefuls widely unknown
Democrats maintain a wide lead over Republicans in the race for control of the House of Representatives, a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS finds, including a 10-point lead among those most likely to turn out this November. In a generic ballot test, 52% of likely voters back the Democratic candidate […] Read more »
Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models
We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. CONT. Charles Tien (CUNY) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. […] Read more »