The 2018 midterm terrain looks a lot different now than it did at the start of the campaigns. Races that many expected to be close, aren’t. Candidates that were assumed to be safe now find themselves in fights. And the Democrats have been the biggest beneficiaries of the changes. A […] Read more »
The Progressive Playbook: How These Candidates Pulled Off Their Upsets
It has become a familiar pattern this primary season. The day after a surprising victory by a progressive underdog — say Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Andrew Gillum of Florida, Jahana Hayes in Connecticut, Wesley Bell in Missouri or Ayanna Pressley in Massachusetts — national audiences rush to meet the […] Read more »
The Economy Is Humming, but Trump Is Tweeting. Republicans Are Worried.
As Democrats enter the fall midterm campaign with palpable confidence about reclaiming the House and perhaps even the Senate, tensions are rising between the White House and congressional Republicans over who is to blame for political difficulties facing the party, with President Trump’s advisers pointing to the high number of […] Read more »
Democrats may have more polling upside in House races than GOP
… The New York Times and Siena College have released multiple House polls over the last week. … The polls produced by Siena and the Times generally point to a House where Democrats have a slight advantage, though Republicans could still retain control. … I went back since the 2006 […] Read more »
Republicans – Men and Women – Continue to Embrace Trump in Their Ads
Pro-Trump messaging in political ads continued through August. Almost 36,000 ad airings in U.S. House and U.S. Senate races mentioned Donald Trump in a positive fashion between August 1 and September 3, which is 13.4 percent of all ad airings in those races. By contrast, 4.8 percent of ads mention […] Read more »
September Governors Overview
Thanks to August primaries in a handful of key races, all the pieces of this year’s gubernatorial puzzle are finally in place, and Republicans’ exposure to losses in November has increased. Republicans were already battling the trends that batter the party in power in midterm elections, and now the GOP […] Read more »