When The New York Times’s Upshot announced it was “live polling” this year’s hottest races, I wasn’t a fan. But my worst fears weren’t realized and I learned some things watching the interviews roll in. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Even for Trump, There Is Such a Thing as Too Far
Over the past few weeks, on the campaign trail and at home in the White House, President Trump has made it clear that attacking immigrants is the main thrust of his midterm message. In 2016, his anti-immigrant campaign resonated with his core supporters and it may well again in 2018, […] Read more »
If Democrats win the House, it will be because of women
… If Democrats win the House, as we currently forecast, it will be because of women voters. The Democratic Party is currently benefiting from the largest gender gap on record for a midterm election. In an average of the last five live interview generic congressional ballot polls, Democrats hold a […] Read more »
Ten Rating Changes as Democrats’ Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens
Two weeks out, district-level polls reflect a House battleground gradually polarizing along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. Democrats are maintaining leads over GOP opponents in upscale, Clinton-won “Whole Foods suburbs” of Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Northern Virginia. But Republicans’ numbers continue to improve in Trump-won districts […] Read more »
How to win an election these days? Be the most popular unpopular option.
We like to think about electoral contests as noble engagements in which voters pick between qualified candidates. That’s the ideal, right? Two respected community leaders offering themselves for consideration, debating the issues and allowing an informed electorate to choose between them. Uh, why are you laughing? CONT. Philip Bump & […] Read more »
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?
Just in time for the Nov. 6 election, President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency. His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, the highest it’s been since March 2017. His disapproval rating is 52.0 percent, so let’s not […] Read more »