… In the final days of the midterm campaign, Trump and other Republicans are focusing their closing arguments on cultural confrontations, from immigration to the bitter confirmation fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. … GOP candidates appear to have lost faith that they can win the argument with voters […] Read more »
Democrats Match or Exceed Republicans on Turnout Indicators
In a departure from Republicans’ usual lead on midterm turnout indicators, Democrats appear to be on par with or possibly ahead of Republicans in eagerness and intent to vote this year. CONT. Lydia Saad, Gallup Read more »
Where things stand less than a week out
We have great news for everyone. In just six days, the 2020 presidential campaign will begin! (No, we’re really not kidding.) But before then, we have the small matter of the 2018 midterm to settle. We’re still agonizing over our final picks in the closest House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. […] Read more »
How Republicans could hold the House
In 2018, will the story be about turnout? Probably not. The empirical fact is that turnout does not display a systematic bias in American national elections, despite the typically lower turnout rate of Democratic partisans and the greater effort by Democratic campaigns to get out the vote. Two more powerful […] Read more »
Looking for Trends on Election Night? Watch These 4 Key Indicators
With the fog of political coverage you’re likely to see over the next week, I wanted to provide Roll Call readers with a simple how-to guide to identify important indicators on election night and what I will be focusing on as an election analyst when the first numbers begin to […] Read more »
Those who love Trump and those who hate him are paying the most attention to him
… A newly released SurveyMonkey poll finds that while Trump is not on the ballot this year, Americans are consuming a remarkable amount of news about him in the final month of the midterm campaigns. The survey from Oct. 10 to 15 asked how much they saw, read or heard […] Read more »