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2018 rewrote the main rule of US politics

So much for the old rule that all politics is local. … In virtually every state, Democrats last Tuesday displayed a clear advantage in densely populated, culturally and racially diverse white-collar metropolitan areas, while Republicans relied on elevated margins in the preponderantly white, religiously traditional, smaller places beyond them. In […] Read more »

The midterms show Trump does not defy political gravity

… It turns out that Trump does not walk on political water. He does not defy political gravity. This is very bad news for him heading into the 2020 campaign. Trump was elected President with the worst favorable rating ever. This led many to speculate that traditional measures of gauging […] Read more »

In suburban South, Democrats break into Republican strongholds

Democrats may call Tuesday’s election a wave, but look closer and you’ll see the latest evidence of a longer-term shift in the suburban vote away from the Republican Party. This metropolitan realignment was so powerful this year that its impacts were felt in places that until now had largely been […] Read more »

For Democrats, a midterm election that keeps on giving

… This was always an election that would test the strength of the economy, which favored the president’s party, vs. the president’s low approval ratings, which, along with the record of past midterm elections, pointed to Democratic gains. In the end, history and presidential approval combined to give Democrats control […] Read more »

Democrats Have Two Paths for 2020: Daring or Defensive. Can They Settle on Either?

For Democrats, the victories, near wins and stinging losses on Tuesday have intensified a debate in the party about how to retake the White House, with moderates arguing they must find a candidate who can appeal to President Trump’s supporters and historically Republican suburbanites, and progressives claiming they need someone […] Read more »