Democrats, Republicans lead in their own strongholds: A key to midterm outcomes

The wide Democratic advantage in congressional vote preference comes entirely in districts the party already holds, raising questions about the extent of its possible gains in November. Yet the closeness of the contests in GOP-held districts underscores this year’s Republican vulnerability. CONT. Sofi Sinozich, ABC News Read more »

The Last Two Weeks of Polls Have Been Great for Republicans. Do They Signal a Shift?

Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all. … The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is […] Read more »

The Districts That Will Determine the Next House Majority

We’ve previously described the Democrats’ odds of winning a House majority in November as roughly 50-50, and that’s where we remain. Democrats benefit from the usual presidential party midterm drag, President Trump’s lackluster approval ratings, and a flood of candidates. Republicans benefit from the overall House map and the presence […] Read more »