The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot has slipped over the last few weeks. But Republicans have gradually lost advantages of their own. Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election […] Read more »
The Generic is Falling! The Generic is Falling!
I hear it all the time these days. The Democratic electoral wave is petering out. The generic ballot shows the Democratic advantage is cratering. President Donald Trump’s job approval is up. Voters are giving the president more and more credit for the economy’s strength. Lighten up, political junkies, the election […] Read more »
Democrats Can Win on Immigration
… In their quest to retake the House or the Senate (or both), Democrats should not shy away from incorporating and welcoming immigrants into their own rhetoric. When Republicans embark on meanspirited immigrant bashing, Democrats should take notes from Harry Reid’s 2010 re-election victory in Nevada and Ralph Northam’s 2017 […] Read more »
The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism
… Republican hopes these days rest on two things. First, their deficit on the generic congressional ballot seems to have declined from 13 points in late December to about 5 points now, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls. … The GOP’s second hope is that the economy will remain […] Read more »
Ratings Changes in 21 Districts
The first two months of 2018 have given both parties reasons for optimism. Republicans have cut Democrats’ lead in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic congressional ballot polls in half, from roughly 12 points in December to about six points today. As debates over unpopular health care and tax bills have […] Read more »
It’s Tribalism Not Trump
There has been a lot of hand-wringing in DC these days about the way in which President Trump has undermined the legitimacy of our nation’s top law enforcement agencies. Trump’s steady stream of Twitter tirades against the FBI and the integrity of the entire Russia investigation has eroded the traditionally […] Read more »