Down but Not Out: A Case for GOP Optimism about the 2018 Elections

The unique characteristics of the Trump candidacy and his continuing unique style of leadership have led us and other pollsters to reflect on our methods of measuring public opinion. We are continuing to experiment with different ways to measure voter attitudes about President Trump, and several of these new methods […] Read more »

Most Americans concerned about Russian interference in midterm elections

More than six in 10 Americans are at least somewhat concerned about potential Russian interference in the 2018 elections. However, this concern breaks down along party lines. While 64 percent of Democrats say they are very concerned, only 15 percent of Republicans feel this way. Most independents are at least […] Read more »

FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The Most Special Special Election Yet

The special election on Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, in the western part of the state, will put Republicans to the test in a part of the country that President Trump has made central to his message. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses the candidates, expectations and political environment […] Read more »

The battleground race in Pennsylvania that shouldn’t be

On Tuesday, Pennsylvania will hold a special election for PA-18, a House district that won’t even exist next year. Normally that’s not the kind of election that draws attention, yet on Saturday, President Trump visited to rally Republicans. And when all is said and done, about $12 million will be […] Read more »

My Union or My President? Dueling Loyalties Mark Pennsylvania Race

If Conor Lamb scores a stunning upset in the special congressional election on Tuesday deep in Trump country in southwest Pennsylvania, he is clear about who should get the credit. “You’ve been the heart and soul of this campaign,” Mr. Lamb told a rally of union steelworkers at their Pittsburgh […] Read more »