The Republicans’ last sea wall against a Democratic wave in November visibly cracked, but did not entirely crumble, in Tuesday’s special election for a House seat in Pennsylvania. For all of the gains Democrats have posted in elections held since Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, until this week they had […] Read more »
The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Could Turn A Democratic Wave Into A Tsunami
It’s a busy time of year, so we’ll keep this relatively short. But I wanted to echo and underscore a point made by FiveThirtyEight contributor Nathaniel Rakich in his article on Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — […] Read more »
Pennsylvania Special Election Recap: Good News for Democrats? Yes. 100+ Seats in Play This Year? Not Quite.
It’s always possible to overinterpret the outcome of a single special election; at the same time, even one more data point can help us make a little bit more sense of the political world around us. Here are a few things that can be gleaned from tonight’s results in Pennsylvania: […] Read more »
Victory in PA-18
In a district that Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016 and continued to maintain a positive approval rating, against steep odds and a frantic flood of GOP spending, Democrat Conor Lamb achieved an historic win in PA-18. Despite the significant inherent difficulties facing Democrats in the district and […] Read more »
12 Thoughts Without Even Knowing Who Won in Pennsylvania
The special election race for Pennsylvania’s 18th District is too close to call, but many of the takeaways are the same, no matter if Democrat Conor Lamb or Republican Rick Saccone ultimately prevails. There will be plenty of hot takes and takeaways about the impact of President Donald Trump on […] Read more »
Battleground 2018: Deep anxiety continues to pervade the American electorate
As the midterm election cycle picks up steam, American voters continue to harbor adverse feelings toward President Trump, a continually robust force for division and polarization. Voters continue to hold mixed feelings about the economy, and amidst a 24-hour news cycle defined by scandals, uniquely discordant partisan policy battles, and […] Read more »