Many Democratic voters and activists are giddy about their party’s chances of retaking the House in 2018. … But a big reality check is in order. Even the strongest blue wave may crash up against a powerful structural force in American politics: extreme gerrymandering. Pending court cases, including one scheduled […] Read more »
A ‘tea party of the left’? Liberal activists learn tough lessons in quest to purify Democratic Party
Liberal activists across the country are eager to harness the energy of the Trump resistance to push the Democratic Party to the left on core social and economic issues, particularly before the party chooses its next presidential nominee in 2020. But first they must figure out what went wrong Tuesday […] Read more »
A Creeping Sense of Doom for Republicans
In the wake of the GOP’s House special-election loss in Pennsylvania and amid President Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior, it’s really hard to come up with good news for Republicans. In my meetings with GOP strategists, there is a sense of doom and resignation. On and off the Hill, Republicans are […] Read more »
Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House From 1974 to 2018
In the aftermath of now-Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D) special election victory on March 13, a constant refrain has been the stated fear among Republicans that the result would precipitate more retirements among GOP members in the U.S. House. As the Crystal Ball has noted in the past, open seats held […] Read more »
Should Democrats Embrace the Center or Abandon It?
Over the next six months, Democratic voters will be asked again and again whether their party’s candidates should hew to the center or move to the left. How voters answer that question will help shape the strategic plans of the dozen or more Democrats jockeying to beat President Trump in […] Read more »
Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats
Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November. Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already […] Read more »