Rep.-elect Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)’s victory in a special election Tuesday night fit into the pattern we’ve seen in other special elections this cycle. In a clearly Republican-leaning seat, Lesko won but ran significantly behind Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential performance. Trump won the district by 21 percentage points, whereas Lesko […] Read more »
California: Republicans surge past Villaraigosa in governor’s race
The two major Republican candidates in the race to succeed Gov. Jerry Brown are battling for second place to make the November runoff, while Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his lead, according to a new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. CONT. Angela Hart, Sacramento Bee Read more »
Berkeley IGS Poll: Little-known Republican threatens to shake up U.S. Senate race in California
A new statewide poll suggests there’s another threat to state Sen. Kevin de León’s insurgent U.S. Senate bid: A little-known Republican pushing back against his “sanctuary state” law. James P. Bradley, running on an “America First” platform, is trailing the former California Senate leader by 1 point — a statistical […] Read more »
How the US mid-terms could kickstart a new era of progressive reform
Get yourself into a totally different mindset when you try to understand this year’s US mid-term elections. Congressional elections are, of course, no rare thing. They happen every two years, and when the White House is not up for grabs, the President can normally expect a bit of a bruising. […] Read more »
Why the win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is still good for Democrats
CNN has projected that Republicans won the special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, but once again Democrats have overperformed in a deep red district, in another sign the national environment is in the their favor. … The result in Arizona 8 fits a pattern so far in special congressional […] Read more »
Measuring the Midterm Intensity Gap
There is a lot of talk about intensity of voters these days, and for good reason. It was the greater intensity of support among Donald Trump backers and the relative ambivalence of many who intended to support Hillary Clinton that likely made the difference in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where […] Read more »