The North Carolina State Board of Elections and Ethics last week voted against certifying Republican Mark Harris’ 905 vote win over Democrat Dan McCready in the state’s 9th Congressional District. In the days since, allegations of election fraud involving absentee mail-in ballots have been made public. The case for election […] Read more »
2018 Midterms: A Missed Opportunity for Republicans
We’ve assessed the 2018 campaign that began and ended with the fight for the election narrative. Our conclusion: This was not a base election. Independents decided the outcome, breaking for Democrats by 12 points. It was a missed opportunity. By “we” I mean the Winston Group, which on Tuesday released […] Read more »
The big lessons of political advertising in 2018
Screen shot of Beto O’Rourke’s Facebook ad, 2018. Facebook Erika Franklin Fowler, Wesleyan University; Michael Franz, Bowdoin College, and Travis N. Ridout, Washington State University The 2018 midterm elections are in the books, the winners have been declared and the 30-second attack ads are – finally – over. As co-directors […] Read more »
The 200 Districts That Withstood The Blue Wave — And What They Have In Common
We’ve spilled plenty of digital ink on where Democrats made gains in the House, so now we are going to look more closely at the 200 seats the Republicans won. And we’ll use how a district voted for President Trump in 2016 in addition to a district’s population density as […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Hispanic Problem
… Nationally, overwhelming margins among Latino voters helped drive Democratic victories in states like California, Nevada and Arizona. But in Florida, older Cuban-Americans who mostly support Republicans voted in droves, while turnout for younger Cubans, Puerto Ricans and other non-Cuban Hispanics who skew Democratic lagged—and did not skew as Democratic […] Read more »
She Votes, She Leads: What Mattered to Women in the 2018 Midterms
A new post-election poll confirms many women voters strongly dislike President Trump and are troubled by his tone and use of offensive language, but they also say he wasn’t the only factor driving their votes this fall. President Trump has a steep hill to climb if he is to win […] Read more »