Key Points• Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago.• Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is leading with independents after Clinton […] Read more »
Here are the Trump battleground states that Harris can help Biden retake
It’s too early to tell how much Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden’s ability to win back […] Read more »
‘Hidden’ Trump Voters Exist. But How Much Impact Will They Have?
… The belief that Americans aren’t getting the real story about Mr. Trump’s chances for re-election has taken hold among many of his supporters. For Trump loyalists, it is an appealing story, and one with some validity: The news media, which largely failed to anticipate Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, […] Read more »
The Veepstakes Are Almost Over
After missing multiple self-imposed deadlines, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the conflict within the Democratic Party over who that pick should be and why the campaign has floated disparate and […] Read more »
Shy Trump Voters Depressing His Poll Numbers?
… Political pendulums can swing back forth quickly and so can polls. But one issue that has surfaced in the news media after some state polling failures in 2016 is the claim of the “shy Trump voter.” This is the assertion by some pundits and politicians that polls undercount Trump’s […] Read more »
The Missing Group of Voters in 2020
… This year, pollsters seem to agree that President Donald Trump has been leaking support among several groups who supported him four years ago, including suburban, college-educated voters; voters over the age of 65 who are understandably quite concerned about the pandemic; and even white, blue-collar voters who have been […] Read more »