The past three presidential elections have been head-snapping for many Americans: a sharp turn into what many people believed was the future of electoral politics with the elections of Barack Obama and an even sharper reversal with the victory of Donald Trump. People are still making sense of it all. […] Read more »
Was the Midwestern ‘Red Shift’ More Pro-Trump or Anti-Hillary? The Answer Matters a Lot for 2018
… In general, one of the most challenging aspects of analyzing events in real time is distinguishing temporary blips from long-term trends. Popular pundits and other media figures often tend to overstate the degree to which immediate events portend long-term patterns; as I noted once in another context, “There’s a […] Read more »
Precinct Data Shows Rich, White Neighborhoods Flipping Democratic in 2016. Will It Last?
Republicans have been the party of the rich and Democrats the party of the poor for about as long as political scientists have collected data on American elections. That might not be quite so true anymore, at least among white voters. Hillary Clinton won the nation’s richest and most exclusive […] Read more »
Political Bubbles and Hidden Diversity: Highlights From a Very Detailed Map of the 2016 Election
Today The New York Times published an interactive map that lets you explore the 2016 presidential election at the highest level of detail available: by voting precinct. This map, although nearly two years old, continues to define American politics. The vast majority of people who voted for Donald J. Trump […] Read more »
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: Americans Don’t Think Trump Is Tough Enough On Russia
Americans don’t think President Trump has been tough enough on Russia, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted after Trump’s summit in Helsinki last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nearly two-thirds said so, and it wasn’t just Democrats. Almost half of Republicans surveyed (47 percent) also said Trump […] Read more »
Without the Russians, Trump wouldn’t have won
President Trump is willing, under duress, to briefly and begrudgingly admit that Russian “meddling” took place in 2016 before reverting to calling it a “big hoax.” But he always maintains that the plot against America had no impact; he describes it as a “Democrat excuse for losing the ’16 Election.” […] Read more »