The Pew Research Center recently released an informative report on the composition of the American electorate, based on a survey of citizens whose electoral participation (or lack thereof) in 2016 was confirmed by matching their names to state voter turnout records. … The national exit poll estimated that Clinton had […] Read more »
CNN poll: Most say Mueller should try to end investigation before Election Day
Two-thirds of Americans, including majorities across party lines, would like to see special counsel Robert Mueller try to finish the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election before voters go to the polls to elect a new Congress this November. That result, from a new CNN poll conducted by […] Read more »
The White Strategy: Trump’s winning coalition and its weaknesses
In the aftermath of the 2012 election, when just about everyone assumed Mitt Romney lost because he didn’t win enough Hispanic votes, the election analyst Sean Trende produced a dissenting take. A close look at the results across the Midwest and Appalachia revealed a large population of what Trende called […] Read more »
How Well Do You Understand the Trump Coalition?
There’s a popular portrait of a “Trump voter.” He’s a white man without a college degree, and so loyal that he would stick by Mr. Trump no matter what. There’s a reason the stereotype exists: Mr. Trump’s strength among white working-class voters, particularly men, put him over the top in […] Read more »
An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters
… This report introduces a new approach for looking at the electorate in the 2016 general election: matching members of Pew Research Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel to voter files to create a dataset of verified voters. … Consistent with other analyses and past elections, race was strongly correlated […] Read more »
What the 2016 Elections Taught Us About Uncertainty
I am frequently asked what the “surprise elections” will be this fall. After all, there are always a few races whose outcome—or near outcome, the results much closer than expected—seem to come out of the blue. … The surprise outcome in November 2016 was the disparity between the state-level polls […] Read more »