By now, you’ve probably heard that Donald J. Trump has a problem with women. Not just suburban women, but American women across age, race or education — a pattern that shows up in every poll. But the gender gap may not be as much about President Trump as many people […] Read more »
There’s no such thing as a shy Trump voter
Trump voters are not liars. As a Democratic pollster and campaign strategist, I feel strange typing these words. But it is required to debunk the “shy Trump voter” myth. The shy Trump voter theory proliferates in political circles these days. This theory suggests that polls are failing to measure President […] Read more »
What Trump Needs to Win: A Polling Error Much Bigger Than 2016’s
If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996. That’s a big “if.” … Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four […] Read more »
Should Biden and Trump focus more on persuading swing voters — or mobilizing the base?
… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
… In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. … This year, both men […] Read more »
The polls could be wrong. But that may help Biden, not just Trump.
As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.” In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s […] Read more »