On Tuesday, several officials in former vice president Joe Biden’s campaign held a background call for reporters about their upcoming plans. One reporter asked whether they considered the Iowa caucuses a must-win event. “I think we’ll win,” one of the advisers said. “Do I think it’s a must-win? No.” The […] Read more »
The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here’s why.
In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory. Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President […] Read more »
The Big Six Swing States in 2020
There are six states that will be key to winning the 2020 presidential election if it is at all close. Whoever wins most of them will in all likelihood win the presidency. The six are Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Donald Trump won Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and […] Read more »
In God’s country: Evangelicals view Trump as their protector. Will they stand by him in 2020?
… Exit polls show that Trump carried 85 percent of evangelical voters here in 2016, a touch higher than the national white evangelical average of 81 percent. That in itself wasn’t surprising: For decades evangelicals have been a reliable Republican constituency. More intriguing was that a segment of white evangelicals […] Read more »
The four charts to keep in mind when you look at early-primary polling
… It’s all interesting and the stakes are obviously enormous. It’s just that … we might want to be wary about reading too much into things. Since 2008, the states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have held 15 party primary contests. Of those 15, only five times were […] Read more »
The Iowa Caucus Is a Frontrunners’ Nightmare
This week was the start of the Iowa State Fair. Besides being one of the few places in America where you can eat fried Oreos AND watch a baby pig being born, the Iowa State Fair is also the unofficial kick-off to campaign season in the state. Presidential candidates swarm […] Read more »