Key Points• Despite — or perhaps because of — the relatively high share of the vote third party candidates received in 2016, we expect the two major parties to have a better showing in 2020.• Voters generally feel better about their major party nominees this year than they did in […] Read more »
In-group Love and Out-group Hate: White Racial Attitudes in Contemporary U.S. Elections
… Most work in the social sciences has ignored the possibility that white Americans possess a racial identity or a sense of racial solidarity, arguing that because of their dominant status and their numerical majority, white Americans are able to take their race for granted. But in recent years, significant […] Read more »
How Trump has broken the polls
… The polls clearly show that Biden is ahead and by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton was on the eve of the 2016 election. You might think that would make people believe that Biden is more likely to win, even if it were far from a certainty. Yet, the […] Read more »
Preview of Coming Distractions
… It is fair to conclude that with numbers as bad as the ones real live voters gave the 2016 Republican nominee, the only reason Trump won an electoral college victory and the White House was because he was running against Clinton. The cold, hard truth is that if Trump […] Read more »
Tweets of Note
While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St — Patrick Egan […] Read more »
Trump’s likeability deficit could cost him in 2020
President Donald Trump has a likeability problem. Four years ago, Trump won election with the lowest favorability for a major party presidential candidate in the polling era. He did so because he won the overwhelming plurality of voters who both disliked Hillary Clinton, the second least liked candidate of all […] Read more »