FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what polling data says about the likelihood of the 2020 electoral map looking like it did in 2016. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Is Biden really ahead of Trump?
As of today, Joe Biden clearly leads Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Suggesting otherwise borders on the foolish. At the same time, while the odds favor Biden in November, a prognosticator would be equally foolish to contend that Trump can’t prevail in the end. Begin considering […] Read more »
Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020
… Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the large majority of national polls in 2016. However, the magnitude of that lead varied considerably over time. This variability may reflect that fact that in an open seat contest like 2016, the choices of voters can be influenced more by the candidates’ […] Read more »
Biden is doing worse than Clinton among Hispanic voters
Joe Biden is reaching heights that Hillary Clinton never did this late in the campaign against Donald Trump. The former vice president holds a significant national lead of around 10 points and is over 50% support. Yet a look at recent polls suggests Trump is outperforming where he was four […] Read more »
Wave of New Polling Suggests an Erosion of Trump’s Support
The coronavirus pandemic, a severe economic downturn and the widespread demonstrations in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd in police custody would pose a serious political challenge to any president seeking re-election. They are certainly posing one to President Trump. His approval rating has fallen to negative 12.7 […] Read more »
Joe Biden hits a milestone Hillary Clinton never did: 50%
Most times when we look at polling we talk about margins. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 7 point margin in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Sunday. What that can miss, however, is that Biden’s close to 50% (49%), while […] Read more »