An investigation of how Donald Trump defied expectations to win the presidency — and what it suggests about how he will govern. Frontline Read more »
The Electoral College Blind Spot
Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s election victory came despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, making for the widest discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College since 1876. So one measure of the quality of horse-race analysis is in how seriously […] Read more »
Will rural voters who swung to Trump swing back?
Donald Trump was propelled to victory in Wisconsin by the most volatile part of its electorate — rural voters with a long history of big election swings, almost always against the party in the White House. That pattern could pose a special challenge to Republicans defending their power in 2018 […] Read more »
How Unconscious Sexism Could Help Explain Trump’s Win
A woman has never come closer to the presidency than Hillary Clinton did in winning the popular vote in November. Yet as women march in Washington on Saturday, many of them to protest the presidency of Donald Trump, an important obstacle to the first woman president remains: the hidden, internalized […] Read more »
The Real Story Of 2016
… While data geeks and traditional journalists each made their share of mistakes when assessing Trump’s chances during the campaign, their behavior since the election has been different. After Trump’s victory, the various academics and journalists who’d built models to estimate the election odds engaged in detailed self-assessments of how […] Read more »
Trump, Clinton Voters Divided in Their Main Source for Election News
In the coming days, Americans will follow a single event across a variety of media channels: the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States. If the public’s media habits during the campaign are any indicator, it is likely that Trump and Hillary Clinton voters will […] Read more »