Over the last few weeks, my political conversations have started to change. They now often lead off with a question like “Can President Trump turn this election around?” or “What would it take for him to win a second term?” That’s quite a shift from just a few months ago, […] Read more »
Our Polling Trauma
The brain learns in different ways. Mastering French verbs requires repetition. A single distressing experience, however, can impart a lasting lesson in moments; a car crash survivor, for instance, might come away with a deep fear of riding in cars. A lesson like that is hard to unlearn, even if […] Read more »
Believe the Polls This Time
… I am a pollster who works to get Democrats elected. Four years ago I, too, believed—based on public polling and information from the Clinton campaign itself—that our candidate was going to win. I still didn’t take victory for granted. I wanted to win down ballot so Democrats would make […] Read more »
2020’s biggest difference with 2016: Trump loses the honesty debate
President Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 because he was seen as the lesser of two evils. His victory came from the voters who didn’t like either candidate. A large part of that came from the belief that voters saw neither one as honest. Trump’s matchup with former […] Read more »
Meet the Supporters Trump Has Lost
For some, the disenchantment started almost as soon as Donald J. Trump took office. For others, his handling of the coronavirus and social unrest turned them away. For all of them, it’s highly unlikely they will vote for him again. These voters, who backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but say […] Read more »
Do Campaign Visits Pay Off? Evidence from the 2016 Presidential Election
Key Points• Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa over the weekend was a reminder of how much his campaign values well-attended rallies.• Trump campaigned more times in more states than Hillary Clinton in 2016.• However, a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show rallies having a significant impact on […] Read more »