Good news on the economic front Wednesday morning: The Gross Domestic Product surged 4 percent in the second quarter of 2014, after dropping 2.1 percent in the first quarter. It’s good economic news that lands on top of continued monthly job growth, meaning that President Obama’s approval rating should move […] Read more »
Crist And Scott Could Make History by Being so Unpopular in Florida
While the national political scene has decayed into polarized stagnation, Americans’ views of state governments have remained mostly positive. That’s probably part of the reason why governors seem to have an advantage when running for president. Yet in Florida, home to one of the nation’s marquee gubernatorial races, Democrat Charlie […] Read more »
New Generic Ballot Surveys Don’t Show Signs of Republican Wave
One of the big questions of this election cycle is whether it will turn out to be a “wave” election, like the one in 2010, when an upswell of anti-Democratic sentiment carried Democrats out of the House. One of the best measures of whether there’s a wave is the “generic […] Read more »
Explaining Online Panels and the 2014 Midterms
A deluge of cheap partisan polls has swamped a shrinking number of high-quality, nonpartisan surveys, making it hard to know who is really ahead in many political campaigns. The solution? More nonpartisan surveys. On Sunday, the research firm YouGov, in partnership with The New York Times and CBS News, released […] Read more »
Republicans’ Senate Chances Rise Slightly to 60 Percent, Data Show
For the last month, we’ve been adding one or two polls a day to The Upshot’s Senate forecasting model. Today, we update all 36 races, based on estimates from a YouGov online panel that covers every congressional and gubernatorial race across the country. … With the addition of the YouGov […] Read more »
Republicans narrowly favored to capture Senate in November
A new CBS News/New York Times Battleground Tracker estimate finds the Republicans positioned to take the Senate this year, with a likely 51-49 seat edge if the November election were held right now. The margin of error on that current seat estimate, at plus or minus 2 seats, means Democrats […] Read more »