For months, voters have been barraged by claims and counterclaims from Republicans and Democrats about the degree to which the landscape is shifting in the race for control of the Senate, which polls are correct and who has the best voter turnout operation. Get ready for more, and be wary […] Read more »
Too Close to Call
… The Senate projections among forecasters using different methodologies, including those of Silver and Wang, are beginning to converge, much as I suggested they would in my previous post on this topic. That convergence is making it increasingly clear that the battle for control of the Senate is still too […] Read more »
Senate Forecasts Aren’t Obvious. Just Take a Look at Kansas.
Races for the United States Senate feature the same drearily familiar elements as presidential contests: partisan polarization, ideological predictability and voters with fixed opinions about well-known politicians. But in Senate races, those elements are all a little smaller, and matter a little less, which makes the outcome of this fall’s […] Read more »
Slim Majority Expect Republicans to Win the Senate
Fifty-two percent of Americans say they expect the Republican Party to win in the U.S. Senate, while an even larger majority, 63%, say Republicans will retain their majority in the House of Representatives. CONT. Lydia Saad, Gallup Read more »
Democrats Are Having More Trouble Keeping 2012 Voters
Democrats are struggling to maintain the support and enthusiasm of people who voted for President Obama, according to data from the RAND American Life Panel. … Obama’s 2012 voters are also less likely to turn out this year. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
Relying on Old Models in a New Model Election
Earlier this year, I sat down with a smart strategist who has been actively involved in the independent expenditure side of the campaign world for the last couple cycles. When I asked this Democrat what he learned from 2012 that he was going to put into practice in the upcoming […] Read more »