Midterm elections are tough for the party in the White House. Since 1866 only thrice (1934, 1998, 2002) has the president’s party not lost seats in a midterm. In all three of those elections, they gained fewer than 10 seats, which isn’t even close to the 17 seats Democrats need […] Read more »
2014 Senate Ratings: Red Alert!
… As we unveil our first ratings of the new Senate cycle, the key question 20 months before the election is this: What seats are in the greatest danger of flipping from one party to the other? To quickly illustrate the most vulnerable seats, we’re borrowing a concept from Star […] Read more »
Romney’s Pollster Warns GOP Members Not to Count on Six-Year Itch
… At their first political conference meeting of the 113th Congress, held at Republican National Committee headquarters a stone’s throw from the Capitol, National Republican Congressional Committee Vice Chairman Lynn Westmoreland of Georgia and top GOP pollster Neil Newhouse told members to be on guard for Obama’s campaign machine. … […] Read more »
Democrats May Gain House Seats in 2014 but Majority Probably Out of Reach
The 2014 midterm elections are a long way off but one thing is already fairly clear: Democrats face an uphill battle in trying to win back control of the House of Representatives. … In order to win back control of the House in 2014, Democrats would have to overcome one […] Read more »
What early polling can – and can’t – tell us about 2013’s key US elections
Polls taken early in the election season are a most interesting phenomenon. The media loves them, while some think they are a waste of time. The record shows that early surveys can tell us a lot about where a race will end up in the case of midterm House and […] Read more »
House 2014: A Narrowing Battlefield?
Ticket-splitters are getting rarer and rarer, at least based on the dwindling number of congressional districts where different parties won the presidential vote and the House seat. And that potentially reduces the number of targets for both sides as we examine 2014’s House playing field. [cont.] Kyle Kondik, UVA Center […] Read more »