Last week, Republicans successfully recalled two sitting Democratic state legislators who supported gun control legislation, including one from a district that gave Obama almost 60 percent of the vote. In the aftermath of this surprising outcome, many Democrats blamed “voter suppression,” arguing that an inability to vote by mail disenfranchised […] Read more »
President Obama’s flailing approval ratings hurt his party
… Obama’s approval rating can greatly affect the 2014 midterm elections and, to a lesser extent, the 2016 presidential election – and the historical odds of it recovering much seem to be slim. In midterms, electorates often take out their frustration with the president on the their party’s congressional members. […] Read more »
Get Ready for the Status Quo
For months now, my theory has been that there were two competing narratives about what the political environment would be like for next year’s midterm elections and, for that matter, going into the 2016 presidential election. One narrative was that the challenges facing the Republican Party in 2012—problems with the […] Read more »
2014 Election Futures Market
It’s a year out and EVERY Republican has one question on their mind: Will ‘14 be more like ‘10 (yeah!), or will it be more like ‘12 (yuck)? If this were Ireland and you could bet on political elections (it’s not and you can’t), at least this would help you […] Read more »
Why Democrats Have Reason to Fear
… Stepping back, midterm elections are, more often than not, referenda on the White House occupant. While the president’s name is not on the ballot, voters usually register their approval or disapproval of the administration through their votes for Congress. Obama’s job-approval ratings are currently in the low- to mid-40s, […] Read more »
More Tea Party Troubles for the GOP
As the GOP leadership in the House struggles to unite its fractious members around a deal to avoid a government shutdown or a default on the nation’s debt, polling from Pew out this week shows why that may be harder than ever. Tea Party Republicans, Pew found, are much more […] Read more »