For months now, my theory has been that there were two competing narratives about what the political environment would be like for next year’s midterm elections and, for that matter, going into the 2016 presidential election. One narrative was that the challenges facing the Republican Party in 2012—problems with the party’s image in general and, very specifically, problems with minority, women, young, and self-described moderate voters—would simply flow into the next election cycle. The other narrative was that President Obama and Democrats would confront the same challenges that commonly face presidents and their party in second terms: The novelty has worn off, and they run out of freshness, focus, new ideas, and energy; as a result, the public becomes increasingly open to change. …
… We could be seeing an election in which the two forces cancel each other out, with little change in the House, and Republicans picking up three, four, or five Senate seats but still coming up short of the six they need to gain a majority. [cont.]
Charlie Cook