… Our final Election Lab forecast was for the Republicans to win 243 seats with a 90 percent confidence interval of 236 to 251 seats. Our forecast proved reasonably accurate. What about the individual House elections? There are 429 races for which the results are finalized, and our model correctly […] Read more »
The Demise of the White Democratic Voter
… There is an ongoing debate among politicians, political scientists and partisans of both parties over the dismal support of Democratic candidates among whites. Does it result from ideological differences, racial animosity or a perception among many whites that they are excluded from a coalition of minorities, the poor, single […] Read more »
What happened?
The first key to understanding Tuesday’s elections is recognizing that it was a midterm cycle. The party controlling the White House typically loses seats in midterms. In recent decades, those losses have averaged 30 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. So far this cycle, Democrats have […] Read more »
Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016
Republican Sen.-elect Joni Ernst easily won her race in Iowa last Tuesday, beating Democrat Bruce Braley by 8.5 percentage points. Her victory wasn’t shocking, but its size was (to everyone except pollster Ann Selzer, that is). The final FiveThirtyEight projection had Ernst winning by just 1.5 percentage points. What the […] Read more »
Bad Decisions Came Back to Haunt Democrats in Midterms
… Americans resent the policy choices that Obama and congressional Democrats made early on. Voters saw little action that would have turned the economy around and created jobs for many working- and middle-class Americans. Their struggle continues to this day, and it cost Democrats their Senate majority last week. Choices […] Read more »
Voters Ready to Act against Big Money in Politics
The 2014 midterm election demonstrated voters’ dissatisfaction with the current state of campaigns and campaign spending. More and more money is being spent each cycle, voters feel bombarded by advertisements from opaque outside groups, and they have no doubt that Congress is bought and sold by special interests and campaign […] Read more »