… Our final Election Lab forecast was for the Republicans to win 243 seats with a 90 percent confidence interval of 236 to 251 seats. Our forecast proved reasonably accurate.
What about the individual House elections? There are 429 races for which the results are finalized, and our model correctly predicted 415 of them (97 percent). …
As we and others have explained, evaluating a model solely based on the number of correct predictions can pose a variety of problems. Another way to assess the forecasts is to compare the actual outcomes to the predicted probabilities of winning. CONT.
Ben Highton (UC Davis), The Monkey Cage