The latest national likely voter survey for Democracy Corps has Obama back to his 49 to 46 percent lead, with 2 percent volunteering a third party candidate. There are only 3 percent undecided. While nearly all the other polls show a closer race, we have a lot of confidence in […] Read more »
Debate Ahead, Romney Gains on Int’l Affairs – But Continues to Lag on Economic Priorities
Mitt Romney carries newfound competitiveness in trust to handle international issues into the final presidential debate, combined with his highest personal popularity of the 2012 campaign. But continued weakness in his perceived economic priorities is keeping the race a close one. Among other shifts, after last week’s second debate, which […] Read more »
Nate Silver’s Flawed Model
… The main reason that Silver feels Obama is still an overwhelming favorite is that while Romney has surged in the polls to tie (or lead) Obama nationally, the challenger is still, in Silver’s opinion, a long shot to pull together enough battleground states to get to 270 electoral votes. […] Read more »
Can the third presidential debate swing it for either Romney or Obama?
Monday brings the final debate. Heading into it, the story remains the same as it was yesterday, last week, and the week before last. President Obama and Mitt Romney remain tied in the national race. The issue for Romney is that, at this point, he lacks a viable path to […] Read more »
Obama leads by 45 points with Latinos
Hispanic voters continue to say they prefer President Obama by wide margins over Republican nominee Mitt Romney amid signs that the race is tightening among the broader electorate, according to new data in a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll. Obama leads Romney 70 percent to 25 percent among likely Latino […] Read more »
The South Isn’t Responsible For Obama’s Weak National Poll Numbers
Last week, Gallup released a demographic breakdown of its likely voter survey, which at that time found Romney leading by 4 points, 50-46. But it found that Romney’s biggest gains were in just one region: the South, where Romney held a massive 22-point lead. Perhaps predictably, this aroused latent liberal […] Read more »