There are two versions of what has happened in the past three weeks in the battle to be US President. One is the version told by most nationwide polls and accepted by the media; the second, told by a minority of nationwide polls, including YouGov, and most polls in the […] Read more »
Will Third Debate Change the Electoral Math?
.. President Obama seemed to win the debate on points, but Mitt Romney seemed to take the course pass/fail and clearly passed. Yet it seems unlikely that this third debate will have nearly the impact that the first debate had in boosting Romney and hurting Obama, or that the second […] Read more »
Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – 2012 edition
In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued that polls across California failed to accurately account for Latino voters in their samples, and that pre-election polls statewide […] Read more »
Foreign Policy Data Roundup: Candidates and Issues
Foreign affairs, the theme of Monday night’s third and final presidential debate, has been one of President Barack Obama’s stronger issue areas in the campaign in 2012, although whether that continues to be the case isn’t clear. … How much foreign policy issues will matter to voters when casting their […] Read more »
Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
Instant-reaction polls following Monday night’s debate in Boca Raton, Fla., judged President Obama to be the winner. … The first presidential debate produced roughly a 4-point bounce in head-to-head polls toward Mr. Romney, while the second presidential debate brought no appreciable bounce toward Mr. Obama. It is tempting to split […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Who won the debate?
A CNN/ORC International Poll following Monday’s presidential debate found those who watched the third and final head-to-head matchup of President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney did not identify a clear winner. Debate viewers split 48% for Obama and 40% for Romney in the poll, a margin within the sampling error […] Read more »