… Imagine a scenario in which Romney edges Obama by 100,000 in Ohio, 30,000 in Iowa, 15,000 in New Hampshire, and 50,000 in Virginia. That’s 41 electoral votes with a microscopic edge of 195,000 votes in four states. That 195,000 would be slightly more than a third of the average […] Read more »
Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008
Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 and 2008. U.S. registered voters report giving less thought to the election, and are less likely to rate their chance of voting as a “10” on a […] Read more »
The Nate Silver backlash
It seems to happen every few weeks. The race tightens or widens or simply continues on exactly as it’s been and some pundit or reporter declares it a staggering humiliation for the burgeoning world of election quants. [cont.] Ezra Klein, Washington Post Read more »
Medicare Fails to Sway Senior Voters
… Senior citizens are a coveted voting bloc in Florida, where they make up about a quarter of the electorate in this highly contested swing state. They are especially important for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, given his deficit among young voters and minorities, according to polls. … Polls now […] Read more »
NPR Poll Finds Presidential Race Too Close To Call
The latest and last NPR Battleground Poll for 2012 shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holding the narrowest of leads in the national sample, but trailing President Obama in the dozen states that will decide the election. The poll adds evidence that the Oct. 3 debate between the two men […] Read more »
Independents’ Day
With a week to go until the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney has a decided leg up on President Barack Obama. … The problem for the president is Romney’s strong and sustained lead among independent voters. Despite four years of boasting from the Democrats that they were in the process […] Read more »