… The reality is that our government hasn’t become this dysfunctional because the parties are so “polarized.” It’s because there is only one pole in American politics today, and its magnetic field is so powerful that it has drawn both parties in the same direction — rightward. And it is […] Read more »
Romney internal memo says ‘GOP enthusiasm’ will tilt election
In the face of poll numbers showing a challenging path to victory Tuesday, particularly in Ohio, Mitt Romney’s campaign is telling allies to talk up Republican chances in Democratic-leaning states while insisting that “GOP enthusiasm” will carry Romney to victory on Election Day. In a memo circulated Saturday to top […] Read more »
The Vanishing Battleground
In the razor-thin 1960 presidential election, John F. Kennedy campaigned in 49 states. Richard M. Nixon visited all 50. The current contest is just as close and intense, but the candidates have campaigned in only 10 states since the political conventions. … The shrinking electoral battleground has altered the nature […] Read more »
For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
… There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida. Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls […] Read more »
The 2004 October Surprise, and What It Means for 2012
John Kerry believed he would have been the 44th president of the United States had it not been for the surprise surfacing of a new Osama bin Laden videotape the Friday before the 2004 election (October 29). This was one of the few points of agreement between Kerry and George […] Read more »
Red Herring: The myth of the Republican military voter
… [M]ost commentators assume that the military “naturally” supports Republicans over Democrats. But will “the military vote” really favor Romney next week? … There’s no single reliable source of information on political views of military personnel. But perhaps the best recent studies of military attitudes come from Jason Dempsey, an […] Read more »