WaPo-ABC tracking poll: Obama up on ‘strong leader,’ but contest still basically deadlocked

There remains almost no daylight between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney as the 2012 presidential campaign nears its conclusion, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. Likely voters nationally continue to divide about down the middle: 49 percent support Obama, 48 percent back Romney. It’s the 10th […] Read more »

Reframing Turnout: Why 2008 Wasn’t As Unique As Many Imagine

The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID. Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t […] Read more »

For most voters, presidential campaign is distant

… Over the past four decades, presidential elections have played out on a shrinking battlefield, as political parties have become more ideologically unified and Americans increasingly have moved to communities where their neighbors share their political views, analysts say. … Political analysts say the narrowed geographic scope of the presidential […] Read more »